Service

Market Intelligence

We build and maintain our own view of the National Electricity Market — the data, the dispatch model and the forecasts — rather than reselling someone else's.

The evidence base

Merit Advisory maintains a NEM-wide database updated every five minutes, covering dispatch, prices, bids and demand across all regions. On top of it sits a full linear-program dispatch model that produces half-hourly price forecasts out to 2045.

The same model underpins the market workstream in our due diligence, the price commentary in board workshops, and the long-term forecasts published to institutional investors. When we give you a number, we can show you where it came from.

What clients use it for

  • Valuing a PPA or offtake against a forward curve built from first principles
  • Testing revenue cannibalisation for a specific technology at a specific node
  • Sizing the firming a portfolio needs, and what that firming costs
  • Board briefings on where prices, volatility and the generation mix are heading
  • Sense-checking a counterparty's model and their proposed rate of return
5 min Refresh interval on the NEM-wide dispatch and price database
Half-hourly Resolution of the linear-program dispatch model, by region and technology
To 2045 Forecast horizon, with scenario and weather-year sensitivities

How we work with it

Three ways clients take it

01

A question answered

A specific commercial question — the value of a contract, the outlook for a region, the effect of a plant closure — modelled and written up.

02

Board and management briefings

The market outlook presented to directors in a form they can act on, with the assumptions exposed rather than buried.

03

Embedded in a transaction

The market workstream inside a due diligence engagement, or an independent check on the model a counterparty has put in front of you.

In public

Where our market view shows up

David originated and co-hosts the EnergyInsiders podcast, publishes long-term NEM price forecasts used by institutional investors, and presents at CEDA, Smart Energy and Clean Energy Council conferences. Sally has presented at CEDA, the Australian Institute of Energy, the Clean Energy Council and more than thirty energy conferences.

Have a market question?

Tell us the decision you are trying to make and we will tell you whether the model can answer it.